Skip to main content

Last Trading Day for the Month of October 2015


As the sun starts to set in Asia, particularly in Indonesia last Friday, this means it is the end of trading day for the month of October 2015. As my portfolio is still keeping momentum with JKSE index, it is still slightly above JKSE month on month (MoM), whereas YTD figures, it outperformed the index by 13.22%. Thanks to BSIM, during the JKSE shock therapy on September 28, where it plunge 24.09% YTD, my portfolio has enough momentum and lost only 9.61% on the same period due to the lack of liquidity from BSIM.



During the month of October, I've sold my shares on APLN and bought shares of ACES. I have interest on ACES (again) due to the expansion program that they have, and still have 2 stores opening by the end of this year, despite the increase in expense, we can see more income coming in, and asset will most likely be increasing as well. 


During the month of October, the portfolio has an abnormal profit of 10.48%, despite the negative return, it is still still higher than the index. The lowest return it received was 12.08% YTD during the second trading day of the month, JKSE loset 21.99% YTD during the same period. A big contributor, and the most liquid stock that the portfolio has, MTDL is averaging 0.38% during the month of October, whereas BSIM is tend to be less liquid and its mean is 0%, meanwhile, JKSE has an average return of 0.35% on the same period.

After 3 trading days on November, it seems the market is reacting to the rumor that the Federal Reserve is going to increase the rate on the month of December, thus JKSE fluctuate. In spite of the news from the Feds, the government have tried many things in order to stimulate the economy. With Chinese economy stabilizing, European also stabilizing, there is a high probability that the Fed will raise the rate on December, and it will pull JKSE down.

I had an interesting job interview with one of the investment bank in Jakarta awhile back, and I actually enjoyed it because we were discussing on whether Bank Indonesia (Indonesian Central Bank) should increase or decrease the rate if the Fed increases their interest rates. I told the interviewer that Bank Indonesia might increase the rates to keep the competitiveness of the currency, BUT I told him, I would rather have the Bank Indonesia to decrease the rates in order to lure foreign investment coming in to Indonesia. The short term result will be devastating as many foreign investors will be leaving the JKSE and put their money in the US bond market, but Indonesian Real sector will have a higher probability of growing in the long run as cheaper Rupiah is available in the market, in other words, sacrificing short term for better long term. This will take around 4-5 years in the process, but it is possible and perhaps one of the best way to tackle the current problem.

Potential industry that I'm aiming right now is perhaps in the oil and gas, particularly ELSA, it is currently stagnant in the lower Rp. 300.00 range (339 at the end of 11/5), with the price of crude oil on $46.53 per barrel, there are potential that ELSA will be use as contractor for oil company in Indonesia due to their cheap services.
Another is consumer goods, particularly ACES because they are still going to open 2 new stores by the end of the year, and as I explained before that it might perhaps slightly increase their revenue by the end of the year. This industry will also see a higher revenue by the end of the year as they will close the book for 2015 - expect many sales on many consumer good stores around Indonesia (MAPI).
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hutang Indonesia yang ga Karuan itu...

Sepertinya saya harus menulis sekarang karena sudah terlalu lama tidak berbagi, dan lagi-lagi saya terlibat debat yang agak membuat saya sedikit kesal dengan kolega saya di kantor. Sebenarnya sepele, tetapi kolega saya ini tidak memaparkan fakta-fakta yang ada – yaa bisa lah disamain sama pak Trump yang kerjaannya cuma berkoar-koar tapi isinya nol dan tidak solutif. Perdebatan ini dimulai dengan diskusi santai mengenai keadaan ekonomi global dan juga domestik. Pada saat itu saya berkomentar bahwa setelah Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) menaikkan suku bunga acuan Fed Fund Rate , sepertinya dollar akan menguat dan pasar saham Indonesia akan sedikit melemah (tapi ternyata saya salah besar – yaaa…….nama juga memprediksi ya, kan bukan dukun juga ;P ). Kemudian saya juga berkomentar mengenai perusahaan pemeringkat kredit dari AS, Standard & Poor (S&P) yang kemungkinan akan menaikkan peringkat Indonesia Sovereign Bond menjadi investment grade – dari BBB- ke BBB. Saya berkat...
2 comments
Read more

Sinarmas Bank Q2 Review

Despite lower net income compare the same period last year, Sinarmas have increased revenue by 41% yoy and increased its credit funds flow by 20% in the first half of 2014 where they aim to have 30% growth by the end of 2014. Operating expense increased by 45% yoy and COGS also increased by 48% which resulting a lower net income in 2Q 2014. In spite of all the increase in outflow and decreased in Net, Sinarmas claimed that the Loan to Value regulation does not impact their business operations in Credit automobile sector because most of the credit holder are those who buys cars instead of motorcycle, which have less risk. Sinarmas will also open 1,000 new branch office starting 2016 to support the growth of the company. With its massive growth in revenue, Sinarmas Bank seems to have a promising future. With relative small ROE of 3% in 2Q2014, it is still a cheap buy for those looking for a long term investment. Keep in mind that it is still a small cap company, and it is not as l...
Post a Comment
Read more

A&Co July Result

After 3 months beating the market constantly, the Jakarta Stock Index (JKSE) finally beat our portfolio by 0.87%, not much, but it is still a disappointment. The grey line represents the abnormal return (Portfolio return - Index return) of the portfolio. Despite that, we made 74% from BSIM, and officially sold it on the 21st of July when the price suddenly jump 20% in just one day - which we thought a little bit weird and looks like it's going to be a rough ride going forward - hence we let it go. Despite the weird action, BSIM was one of our top stock, its monthly average was 19.92%, whereas its median is 0%, LITERALLY 0%, the high average is due to the sharp movement of 20% in one day. Our second top stock is ELSA, this stock also had a weird sharp movement on 13th of July, it jump to 58% in just one day, almost double in just one day. Unlike BSIM though, ELSA has a fairly high liquidity, thus we weren't very surprise on the big movement, and still have big hope with ELS...
2 comments
Read more