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This time I’m not going to write about the market because that is now my everyday job at the office, it’s weekend, and I’d like to take my mind off from the market (especially after the Trump tantrum this last two weeks!). On top of that, I’d like to make this post to be more laid back and personal, enjoy! First off, Congratulation to president-elect Donald Trump on the victorious win against Hillary Clinton on the 9 th of November. It was rather surprising and unbelievable to realize that he had won the seat of the most powerful person on earth; it literally blew everybody’s mind that day. The futures market (S&P and DOW futures) was bleeding and the Asian market was also weakening when the Donald Trump was winning on Wednesday. Anyway, as I wrote on my previous blog on " The closing door on Globalization in the west ", the door will eventually closed in the next couple of years in the U.S. because Trump will focus on protectionism for the U.S. economy going forw...

The year 2016 is about to close its door, and have left many scars in the economic and political arena around the world – nonetheless – Indonesia. The spotlight for the next two months is in the US, with the presidential election on the 8 th of November, and the Federal Reserve announcement on the Fed Fund Rate on the 15 th of December. The consensus have been leaning towards a higher rate on December, with 36.7% predicted that it will be raise by 0.5-0.75 bps. Eyeballing the macro data from the US recently, there is certainly a high probability that the fed will raise the rate – despite the higher jobless claims and lower consumer confidence in October. On another note, the political field in the US is definitely an odd one where most young Americans are deciding not to vote on this year presidential election [ link ].  Enough with the US, back home in Indonesia, the central bank (Bank Indonesia) just cut the benchmark rate 7 day reverse repo on 20 th of October by 0...

Globalisasi merupakan senjata utama untuk perekonomian negara dapat berkembang. Secara teori, jika ekspor dan impor dapat diterapkan secara teratur, maka perekonomian di kedua negara yang melakukan transaksi tersebut akan lebih efisien dan menguntungkan. Namun tidak semua masyarakat setuju dengan dasar teori ekonomi ini, masih banyak dari masyarakat di negara tertentu merasa dirugikan dengan adanya globalisasi karena banyak pekerjaan yang dipindahkan ke negara lain - yang seharusnya memiliki kemampuan lebih untuk pekerjaan tersebut.  Dengan adanya perekonomian global, harga barang import pun bisa lebih murah - jika mata uang negara tersebut cukup kuat dan tidak memiliki tarif perdagangan yang ketat. Contoh yang sangat sederhana adalah produk apple, iPhone; di box iPhone tertuliskan " Designed in California, assembled in China ", bahasa kasarnya, " Made in China ". Apple merupakan satu dari sekian banyak perusahaan ternama di dunia yang meng-expor proses manuf...

August may pass just like that...But September can't... "The most important part of trading is the psychological level of an individual...Are you OK with the fact of losing money is part of the job" -Pierce Curran; Amplify Trading. Many investors aren't very fond of September due to its historical of bearish trend, and has been categorize as one of the worst month of the year. I opened this blog with quote from Pierce Curran of Amplify Trading because it is the most rational things for an individual to start trading. After baffling weeks full of volatility in the market, especially in the futures, particularly oil market. After the reporting shortage of oil supply in the US on 14 of September, at the same time, the IEA and OPEC increased the forecast for oil supply in 2017 as fields are found and the US shale oil drillers proven to be more resilient (read more here ), which then impacted a decreasing price of oil on the 14th. The same happen in Indonesia as wel...

After 3 months beating the market constantly, the Jakarta Stock Index (JKSE) finally beat our portfolio by 0.87%, not much, but it is still a disappointment. The grey line represents the abnormal return (Portfolio return - Index return) of the portfolio. Despite that, we made 74% from BSIM, and officially sold it on the 21st of July when the price suddenly jump 20% in just one day - which we thought a little bit weird and looks like it's going to be a rough ride going forward - hence we let it go. Despite the weird action, BSIM was one of our top stock, its monthly average was 19.92%, whereas its median is 0%, LITERALLY 0%, the high average is due to the sharp movement of 20% in one day. Our second top stock is ELSA, this stock also had a weird sharp movement on 13th of July, it jump to 58% in just one day, almost double in just one day. Unlike BSIM though, ELSA has a fairly high liquidity, thus we weren't very surprise on the big movement, and still have big hope with ELS...

Saham merupakan suatu instrumen finansial yang cukup menarik untuk para investor yang memiliki toleransi resiko cukup tinggi. Sebenarnya, apa sih saham itu? Mungkin tidak semua orang mengerti dengan keberadaan saham di dunia investasi. Menurut investopedia.com, saham adalah Security that signifies ownership in a corporation and represents a claim on part of the corporation's assets and earnings , dalam arti lain, saham adalah suatu surat jaminan yang menyatakan kepemilikan di dalam suatu perusahaan dan merupakan hak atas sebagian dari aset dan pendapatan perusahaan. Maka dari itu, saham adalah suatu surat berharga yang menyatakan suatu kerja sama antara kedua belah pihak (investor dan perusahaan).  Diluar dari pengertian dasar saham, teknis atas perdagangan saham sudah semakin maju. Perdagangan saham sudah tidak mewajibkan perusahaan untuk mencetak saham tersebut, semua perdagangan saham sudah menggunakan teknologi, dimana investor cukup menekan tombol enter  dan sudah da...

Menabung adalah hal paling dasar yang dilakukan karyawan dan/atau masyarakat yang ingin menyisihkan uangnya untuk keadaan darurat atau untuk membeli sesuatu yang baru. Investasi merupakan hal selanjutnya yang dilakukan masyarakat setelah menabung, disaat tabungan mereka sudah memadai dan masih memiliki uang lebih, maka mereka akan mulai untuk berinvestasi. Di samping itu, ada yang namanya spekulasi. Spekulasi merupakan pekerjaan yang dilakukan oleh day trader , yang lebih cenderung mendekati berjudi di pasar saham. Masyarakat sepertinya masih suka keliru antara spekulasi dan investasi, dan selalu memandang bahwa investasi di saham itu tidak aman dan tergolong sebagai judi - maka investasi di saham itu dianggap haram atau berbahaya. Hal ini merupakan pernyataan yang salah karena investasi dan spekulasi adalah dua hal yang berbeda. Menurut Kamus Besar Bahasa Indonesia, menabung artinya menyimpan uang (di celengan, pos, bank, dan sebagainya) , dan jika dirincikan lagi, menyimpan art...

There are many financial instruments that can give a substantial abnormal return Indonesia other than save deposit. One instrument that made the hype was Futures market, but its reputation is starting to get dim due to the lack of ethics and mismanagement from the company. From these type of problems, people have made an assumption that the futures market are a scam and fraud with a catch phrase "get rich quick". Other investment vehicle that are big interest among the Indonesian people include precious metal, such as gold and silver, land, and of course property/real estate such as apartment and boarding houses or flats. People have no hesitation on gold because it has a history of its own and it is one of the oldest financial instrument among others. Investment on land/property and real estate also have its own characteristic - just like gold, it has a very long and unique history. The Indonesian have become very comfortable with the two instruments because they are ...

Sebetulnya masih banyak instumen finansial yang dapat di gunakan di Indonesia selain deposito yang dapat memberi abnormal return lebih tinggi. Salah satunya yang sempat booming adalah Futures trading atau berjangka, namun reputasi bisnis ini sudah mulai pudar karena banyak di salah gunakan oleh pihak perusahaan, dan dari situ banyak masyarakat yang mengira bahwa futures trading ini adalah penipuan atau scam dengan iming-iming " get rich quick ". Investasi lain yang masih banyak di minati masyarakat adalah logam mulia seperti emas, tanah dan properti/Real Estate seperti apartemen dan kos-kosan. Masyarakat tidak ragu dengan emas karena emas memiliki sejarah tersendiri, dan merupakan instrumen finansial tertua. Investasi tanah/properti dan real estate juga memiliki karakteristik yang menyerupai emas, dimana sejarahnya sangat tua dan unik. Kedua alat finansial ini merupakan instrumen yang sangat kaya dengan sejarah dan memiliki reputasi-nya tersendiri, maka dari itu masyarakt ...

The price of oil is not even funny anymore at this point, the global economic starts to feel the contraction and the slowdown. The Federal Reserve decided to keep the current interest rate unchanged, with federal funds rate at 0.25% to 0.5% in to anticipate the slowdown in China and the price of oil, which have created a nail biting situation among investors 1 . The Swiss National Bank also keeps the interest rate unchanged, which is at their record low of between -1.25% and -0.25% 2 . Bank of England also keeps the interest rate unchanged due to its slow growth on the second half of last year and a rough start of 2016 3 . On another note, Norway’s central bank cuts their key interest rate to a record low of 0.50% and a possibility of further cuts in the future due to the lower price of oil which impacted Norway’s oil and gas industry to slowdown 4 . In Indonesia, the Central Bank decided to cut their interest rate by 25 basis point to 6.75% due to the economic slow down 5 . The slowd...

So, I decided to create an overview of A&Co portfolio - after 3 years of trading that is. After trading a little more than 14 stocks in the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) for 3 years, despite the horrendous lost during the first year of trading, I just realized that the portfolio constantly beat the market 2 years in a row. The portfolio is design to be more positioned in terms of trading than day trading, I like to hold my stocks for more than 4, up to 12 months, depends on the performance of the stocks. I don't really dwell on mini corrections, all I see are the long term of the stocks, where the fundamental support of course. Here are are the overview of A&Co portfolio for the last 3 years period, and currently holding 4 stocks, 1 in consumer goods, 1 financial, 1 in oil and mining, and last but not least...tech company. Data per 3/2/2016             1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Years 3 Y...