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2017 - A Year in Review

Di akhir tahun 2017, pasar saham global diwarnai oleh kegembiraan dimana ketiga indeks AS S&P500, Dow Jones dan Nasdaq ditutup menguat masing – masing +19,42%, +25,08% dan +28,24% sepanjang tahun 2017. Dari Eropa, Eurostoxx indeks ditutup menguat +6,49% full year (FY) 2017, indeks Jerman DAX +12,51% dan indeks Inggris FTSE100 ditutup menguat +7,63% pada periode yang sama. Dari Asia pun juga memiliki cerita yang sama, dimana Shanghai Composite meningkat +6,56%, dan indeks China Hang Seng meningkat secara signifikan di tahun 2017, naik +35,99%. Indeks Jepang NIKKEI pun mengikuti pergerakan pasar saham global, meningkat +19,10% di tahun 2017. Dari sisi makro, perekonomian AS mulai terlihat perbaikannya – hal ini terefleksi pada data PDB atau GDP yang berada di level 2,3% secara YoY, lebih tinggi dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya yang hanya di level 2,2% YoY. Inflasi di bulan November pun sudah berada di level 2,2%, sehingga Bank Sentral AS, the Federal Reserve meningkatkan suku bung...
Recent posts

Finding Portfolio Efficiency Using the Efficient Frontier Theory in Indonesian Capital Market

Objectives & Aim of the Research The objective of this research is to understand the risk and the reward between various weighting of JCI and BINDO in a portfolio. To understand the bond market movement and compare it to the stock market movement and to test whether the theory of high risk, high gain is applicable in the Indonesian market. The goal of this small research is to be able to find an optimal portfolio return in the last five years and to see whether the different market behaviour on bond and stock market. By understanding the risk and return of the two most basic financial instruments, analyst will be able to find the correlation and will be able to create an optimal portfolio between the two instruments. The aim of the final product is for investors to understand the risk and reward between the two instruments (stocks and bonds), and compare the risk and reward between the two – whether it is rational for investors to put X% of their portfolio in the stock ma...

Hutang Indonesia yang ga Karuan itu...

Sepertinya saya harus menulis sekarang karena sudah terlalu lama tidak berbagi, dan lagi-lagi saya terlibat debat yang agak membuat saya sedikit kesal dengan kolega saya di kantor. Sebenarnya sepele, tetapi kolega saya ini tidak memaparkan fakta-fakta yang ada – yaa bisa lah disamain sama pak Trump yang kerjaannya cuma berkoar-koar tapi isinya nol dan tidak solutif. Perdebatan ini dimulai dengan diskusi santai mengenai keadaan ekonomi global dan juga domestik. Pada saat itu saya berkomentar bahwa setelah Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) menaikkan suku bunga acuan Fed Fund Rate , sepertinya dollar akan menguat dan pasar saham Indonesia akan sedikit melemah (tapi ternyata saya salah besar – yaaa…….nama juga memprediksi ya, kan bukan dukun juga ;P ). Kemudian saya juga berkomentar mengenai perusahaan pemeringkat kredit dari AS, Standard & Poor (S&P) yang kemungkinan akan menaikkan peringkat Indonesia Sovereign Bond menjadi investment grade – dari BBB- ke BBB. Saya berkat...

One Nation, Divided...

This time I’m not going to write about the market because that is now my everyday job at the office, it’s weekend, and I’d like to take my mind off from the market (especially after the Trump tantrum this last two weeks!). On top of that, I’d like to make this post to be more laid back and personal, enjoy! First off, Congratulation to president-elect Donald Trump on the victorious win against Hillary Clinton on the 9 th of November. It was rather surprising and unbelievable to realize that he had won the seat of the most powerful person on earth; it literally blew everybody’s mind that day. The futures market (S&P and DOW futures) was bleeding and the Asian market was also weakening when the Donald Trump was winning on Wednesday. Anyway, as I wrote on my previous blog on " The closing door on Globalization in the west ", the door will eventually closed in the next couple of years in the U.S. because Trump will focus on protectionism for the U.S. economy going forw...