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Garuda, one of Indonesia's best airline - and yes it is government owned, BUT they've raised the bar in regards to the services and quality of their plane and flight experiences. More routes are being flown by garuda, even to the small cities in Indonesia, making them a bigger player nationally. Garuda is currently in a bad shape, as it is not an old story. The net income of this airline has been negative across 2013, but offset it during Q4 2013 by 38% YoY. Early 2014, earnings has not been a cakewalk for the airline, Q1 is on par YoY, and Q2 only increased by 1.4% YoY. Net income has been treacherous, Q1 2014, a falling NI by more than 400% YoY, and Q2 is worsening by 135% QoQ. the chart is showing a massive upward trend during a couple of weeks, and people have made profit Friday alone. Foreign money already net sell almost 4mio in value, but the remaining 4,6mio are still holding on to it. Foreign net buy starts on the 15th of October of 1.4mio in value, which bring the pr...

For confirmation from yesterday's blog. The price did rise today during the first session. The volume bid is slightly higher than offered, but enough to bring the price up. The price is currently floating at 284, RSI confirms a rebound while MACD and MA are still waiting. Resistance line 306, support on 275. This will take days to make a confirmation whether the bull trend is coming, until MACD crosses.

RIGS is a service company which provide offshore support for various offshore exploration. Its main clients are in the energy industry, and of course coal and mining. Its income statements are not the best in its industry, but it looks like there have been some speculation on the market. The price drop by 25.7% in less than a month and on Thursday (11/06), there has been more bid than offer in the market. Even though the fundamental looks somewhat choppy, but the chart is showing that a bargain hunter will enter the market soon. Table 1 Table 1 is showing the closing activity on the 11th of November, bargain hunter seems like already enter the market, but sellers are not willing to sell on the asking price. The market for RIGS have not reached to an equilibrium on Thursday. If this activity continues during first session on Friday, the price may eventually go up. Now let's take a look at the technical side.  Assuming bought on the closing price, IDR 275, if the price breaks...

I finally decided to write again, after my last post. News have been very mixed lately, the inauguration of Joko Widodo, Indonesian 7th president was very fascinating. Many contributed in many ways, and all people from all walks of life came down to bunderan HI  to see the new president. Jokowi after his inauguration This is a rare sight in Indonesia, where everybody join in together to contribute to politics. Congratulation Mr. Joko Widodo, you have made Indonesia whole again, your people have high hopes on you. In other news, finally, after long awaited moment, despite the fact that the Central Statistic Agency of Indonesia have not released the data yet, investing.com have kindly alerted me on Indonesian GDP Q3 result, split by QoQ and YoY. Below is the snapshot of it. The world economy slowdown have affected much of the emerging market, and Indonesia is one of them. Another good news from abroad is the fact that QE in the U.S. no longer exist, thus the economy run on i...

As September is coming to a close, Q3 earnings and economic report will be post in the coming weeks. What to expect on Q3? After one month staying in Indonesia while waiting for my visa, I've watched the news almost every morning, and keeping up with the current market condition. The appointed president Joko Widodo and appointed vice president Jusuf Kalla will be inaugurate next month and they have created 34 ministries where 18 will be an independent (non-political party) professional, and 16 will be professional from political party. This event can be view as historical because this is the first time that the majority of the ministries are from non-political party, and are professionals in their role. (you may read the detail here ) Jokowi-JK during the announcement of 34 ministries Aside from politics, the most awaited event during Q3 is the result of Indonesian Current Account Balance where last quarter was deficit by USD 300mio. Based on my intuition, Q3 will be slightl...

Indonesian economic on Q2 has been disappointing, perhaps this is what the government is focusing on, to pace the growth on slower rate due to a deficit on the current account balance by USD 300mio. The Indonesian government is tightening its monetary policy in order to keep the current account positive by targeting the current account to 2.5% from GDP, but otherwise it is showing a deficit of 3.5% from GDP with main driver of the deficit by oil and gas sector. GDP was short by 0.32% from analyst forecast, and it is mainly due to a negative result on Balance trade account due to a weak export during the second quarter of the year. After a shortfall on GDP during the second quarter, Indonesia is having difficulties on distributing the amount of petrol nationally. The subsidize petrol have been wasted for approximately 48% while there’s still four months in the year 2014, and many debate have risen whether it is ok to distribute the petrol normally, with consequence of wasted ...

In a news from bisnis.com , Waskita Karya Construction company (WSKT) will increase their Net income by 20% from last year achievement of IDR 368bio, making it a whopping IDR 443bio by the end of 2014. Sales have increased by 6% y-o-y on Q2, whilst COGS is slightly higher than last year, but WSKT still manage a 17% increase on gross profit. I have forecast Q3 and Q4 whether WSKT is able to hit the target by the end of 2014 with net income of IDR 443bio, using last year quarterly growth of the company. Net income is not showing 443bio, in contrast it only shows merely 400bio, but again this is using last year growth as assumption, perhaps they have different approach and other business decision that can create a higher net income than what I have forecast. WSKT have used 58% of its capital expenditure for the year 2014, you may read more here . That means WSKT will only have IDR 350bio for the next two quarters, from the total of IDR 850bio. Is WSKT a buy? Fundamentally it has ...

The U.S. financial market is like the Mecca of the financial industry in the world. What happen in the U.S. will eventually affect the world sooner or later, it's a domino effect. The world also suffer when the U.S. economy collapsed. A good example is the credit crisis in 2008, when the bubble pop, the world economy collapse with it and stopped functioning, including those with the strongest economy such as Singapore, and China. With S&P rising higher than ever and the Dow broke its record high, when will the bear arrive? Or will there be another crisis, or the economy is in new financial bubble? With all the hype, some economic indicators can be put into considerations, such as 0.25% interest rate and the continuing quantitative easing (QE). The two correlate one another, and maybe the reason behind a high rising index in the U.S. is due to cheap overflowing money from the federal reserve, the financial industry are putting more money in the equity market and creating more ...

It is not a new info that the federal reserve will eventually increase the interest rate. Considering the significant growth during Q2 by 4% increase qoq, it was an over-expectation by the analysts and economists. Higher job market, lower jobless claims and increase in hiring is the affect of stronger economy in the US. The above chart shows an increase in job opening, the highest since 2001. The U.S. economy have never been this good after the credit crisis in 2008, but most of the money flowing are from the Feds buying treasury bond in the market, part of the Quantitative Easing in order to get the economy out of recession. Below chart shows how much the Feds have spent during QE Be on the look out for economic news during the Q3, even though the Feds thinks it's still a good idea to keep the interest rate low. Keep in mind, low interest rate and large amount of dollar in the circulation will create a lower value of the dollar. If they keep the interest rate at 0.25% fo...

Despite lower net income compare the same period last year, Sinarmas have increased revenue by 41% yoy and increased its credit funds flow by 20% in the first half of 2014 where they aim to have 30% growth by the end of 2014. Operating expense increased by 45% yoy and COGS also increased by 48% which resulting a lower net income in 2Q 2014. In spite of all the increase in outflow and decreased in Net, Sinarmas claimed that the Loan to Value regulation does not impact their business operations in Credit automobile sector because most of the credit holder are those who buys cars instead of motorcycle, which have less risk. Sinarmas will also open 1,000 new branch office starting 2016 to support the growth of the company. With its massive growth in revenue, Sinarmas Bank seems to have a promising future. With relative small ROE of 3% in 2Q2014, it is still a cheap buy for those looking for a long term investment. Keep in mind that it is still a small cap company, and it is not as l...

Christopher Condon from Bloomberg.com reported Alan Greenspan warned about a potential financial bubble in the future, click here for more details of the news. This might be a reasonable argument considering S&P 500 nearly tripled its value since the crash and big dip in 2009.